Healthcare Reform VS the Obama Administration and the US Economic Reality

What will the historic presidential election mean for US healthcare reform prospects?
Now that the 2008 US presidential election is over we can all breath a collective sign of relief. Just for a second. With selecting the smartest and the most divest people to be in his cabinet we can easy say that the real action is about to start.
While I am a registered Democrat, who obtained a MBA in the Healthcare industry in 2007, my congratulations and kind wishes go to President-Elect Obama.
He is a historic figure but my fear is he is going to get tested by some of the most challenging circumstances both internationally and nationally. The Mumbai Deadly Attack this week showed that there will be a catastrophe that will test Obama's national security experience, so let hope he doesn’t experience a terrorist attack in his first term. As an American citizen and a black young man I want him to do well.

Now what he could should and would actually do about healthcare?
Of course, Obama transition and priorities are just being defined. There are many people lining up to give him advice or get a job in his Administration. The Congressional honchos have been preparing their long wishlists for years. Finally, the economic malaise is the biggest and baddest elephant in the room. How far on the list of priorities can healthcare get and how much can be done?

What COULD Obama Administration do about healthcare?
Theoretically speaking, anything is possible. The new Congress could go ahead and pass Ted Kennedy's plan in the first months. I have no doubt John Conyers will introduce his single payor bill yet again. Individual mandate is the likeliest approach to garner most attention, though the myriad of implementation details could slow it down. One thing is sure, all this stuff will cost a lot of money.

What SHOULD Obama Administration do about healthcare?
My opinion is that Obama needs to confront the REAL problem that links healthcare with the rest of the economy. I am talking about the ticking time bomb called Medicare, which I think should be bailout also. The current financial crisis might seem scary, but we have not seen nothing yet if the deficits end up emptying the US Treasury and bankrupting the US Government. This may sound doubtful, but so did Lehman failure till the very last moment.

What WOULD Obama Administration do about healthcare?
This is another $800 billion Dollar Question! Tackling the deficit issue head on will not be popular but is the right thing to do. In the context of healthcare reform this would mean telling people that they cannot have some of the things they want. Healthcare rationing has, is and will keep happening, whether administered by the government or private insurers. What is missing is an honest discussion about it.

Doing what is right vs. what is expedient
While I am not an economist, I pay close attention to market analysis and do my best to look through hype and spin, that we have come to expect from financial advice industry. Read my previous post. You will find that the ratio of US debt to GDP is nearly twice that we had in Great Depression. The process of debt unwinding already started on Wall Street and with foreclosed homeowners and the fallout of the big 3. But this is just the tip of the iceberg when we consider other forms of debt in our economy - and the healthcare debts that are coming up due. As an American citizen, I hope Obama will have the wisdom and the strength to not let short term fixes cause long term ruin of this great country.

Thanks for reading my blog.....
Rony Delgarde

The historic election of 2008 , his storied moment, the 44th president of the USA, Barack Obama

His storied election behind him and weighty problems in his face, Barack Obama turned Wednesday to the task of building an administration in times of crisis as Americans and the world absorbed his history-shattering achievement as the first black leader ascending to the presidency.

Obama enjoyed an everyman day after in his hometown of Chicago on Wednesday after an electric night of celebration, anchored by his victory rally of 125,000 in Chicago and joyful outpourings of his supporters across the country. The president-elect saw his two young daughters off to school, a simple pleasure he's missed during nearly two years of virtually nonstop travel, then had a gym workout.

Pressing business came at him fast, with just 76 days until his inauguration as the 44th president.

The nation's top intelligence officials planned to give him top-secret daily briefings starting Thursday, sharing with him the most critical overnight intelligence as well as other information he has not been allowed to see as a senator or candidate. And Obama planned to give the first of his daily briefings to the media on Thursday as he moves quickly to begin assembling a White House staff and selecting Cabinet nominees.

Obama was asking Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel, former political and policy adviser to President Clinton, to be his White House chief of staff, Democratic officials said. John Podesta, who served as Clinton's chief of staff, was expected to join Obama Senate aide Pete Rouse and campaign adviser Valerie Jarrett in leading the transition team.

President Bush pledged "complete cooperation" in the transition and called Obama's victory a "triumph of the American story."

Naming the staggering list of problems he inherits in his decisive defeat of Republican John McCain- two wars and "the worst financial crisis in a century," among them- Obama sought to restrain the soaring expectations of his supporters late Tuesday night even as he stoked them with impassioned calls for national unity and partisan healing.

"We may not get there in one year or even in one term," he said. "But, America, I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you, we as a people will get there."

Helping him to get there will be a strengthened Democratic majority in both houses of Congress. When Obama becomes the president on Jan. 20, with Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as his vice president, Democrats will control both the White House and Congress for the first time since 1994.

A tide of international goodwill came Obama's way on Wednesday morning, even as developments made clear how heavy a weight will soon be on his shoulders.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a congratulatory telegram saying there is "solid positive potential" for the election to improve strained relations between Washington and Moscow, if Obama engages in constructive dialogue.

Yet he appeared to be deliberately provocative hours after the election with sharp criticism of the U.S. and his announcement that Russia will deploy missiles near NATO member Poland in response to U.S. missile defense plans.

In Afghanistan, where villagers said the U.S. bombed a wedding party and killed 37 people, President Hamid Karzai said: "This is my first demand of the new president of the United States to put an end to civilian casualties."

Young and charismatic but with little experience on the national level or as an executive, Obama easily defeated McCain, smashing records and remaking history along the way.

Ending an improbable journey that started for Obama a long 21 months ago, he drew a record-breaking $700 million to his campaign account alone. The first African-American destined to sit in the Oval Office, he also was the first Democrat to receive more than 50 percent of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976. He is the first senator elected to the White House since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

And Obama scored an Electoral College landslide that redrew America's political dynamics. He won states that reliably voted Republican in presidential elections, such as Indiana and Virginia, which hadn't supported a Democratic candidate in 44 years. Ohio and Florida, key to President Bush's twin victories, also went for Obama, as did Pennsylvania, which McCain had deemed crucial for his election hopes.

With most U.S. precincts tallied, the popular vote was 52.3 percent for Obama and 46.4 percent for McCain. But the count in the Electoral College was much more lopsided, 349 to 147 in Obama's favor as of early Wednesday, with three states still to be decided. Those were North Carolina, Georgia and Missouri.

The nation awakened to the new reality at daybreak, a short night after millions witnessed Obama's election, an event so rare it could not be called a once in a century happening. Prominent black leaders wept unabashedly in public, rejoicing in the elevation of one of their own, at long last.

The Rev. Jesse Jackson, who had made two White House bids himself, said on ABC's "Good Morning America" that the tears streaming down his face upon Obama's victory were about his father and grandmother and "those who paved the fights. And then that Barack's so majestic."

Rep. John Lewis, a Georgia Democrat and leading player in the civil rights movement with Jackson, said on NBC's "Today" show: "He's going to call on us, I believe, to sacrifice. We all must give up something."

Speaking from Hong Kong, retired Gen. Colin Powell, the black Republican whose endorsement of Obama symbolized the candidate's bipartisan reach and bolstered him against charges of inexperience, called the senator's victory "a very very historic occasion." But he also predicted that Obama would be "a president for all America."

On Capitol Hill, Democrats ousted incumbent GOP Sens. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and John Sununu of New Hampshire and captured seats held by retiring Republican senators in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. Still, the GOP blocked a complete rout, holding the Kentucky seat of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and a Mississippi seat once held by Trent Lott.

The Associated Press prematurely declared incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman the winner in a race against Democratic former comedian Al Franken that by state law is subject to a recount based on the 571-vote margin. The party also held onto a Mississippi seat once held by Trent Lott.

In the House, with fewer than a dozen races still undecided, Democrats captured Republican-held seats in the Northeast, South and West and were on a path to pick up as many as 20 seats.

"It is not a mandate for a party or ideology but a mandate for change," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.

After the longest and costliest campaign in U.S. history, Obama was propelled to victory by voters dismayed by eight years of Bush's presidency and deeply anxious about rising unemployment and home foreclosures and a battered stock market that has erased trillions of dollars of savings for Americans.

Six in 10 voters picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation in an Associated Press exit poll. None of the other top issues energy, Iraq, terrorism and health care was selected by more than one in 10. Obama has promised to cut taxes for most Americans, get the United States out of Iraq and expand health care, including mandatory coverage for children.

McCain conceded defeat shortly after 11 p.m. EST, telling supporters outside the Arizona Biltmore Hotel, "The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly."

"This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and the special pride that must be theirs tonight," McCain said. "These are difficult times for our country. And I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face."

The son of a Kenyan father and a white mother from Kansas, the 47-year-old Obama has had a startlingly rapid rise, from lawyer and community organizer to state legislator and U.S. senator, now not even four years into his first term.

Almost six in 10 women supported Obama nationwide, while men leaned his way by a narrow margin, according to interviews with voters. Just over half of whites supported McCain, giving him a slim advantage in a group that Bush carried overwhelmingly in 2004.

The results of the AP survey were based on a preliminary partial sample of nearly 10,000 voters in Election Day polls and in telephone interviews over the past week for early voters.

In terms of turnout, America voted in record numbers. It looks like 136.6 million Americans will have voted for president this election, based on 88 percent of the country's precincts tallied and projections for absentee ballots, said Michael McDonald of George Mason University. Using his methods, that would give 2008 a 64.1 percent turnout rate, the highest since 65.7 percent in 1908, he said.

Rony Delgarde

The Next President!!!

So this is the eve of our presidential election 2008, I just like to say a few words.....

Many of us will never know what goes on behind the closed doors of the White House, but we will always be the indirect victim of lousy decision making in our nation's capitol. It is not only the President that makes these crucial decisions but our whole political system that is appointed with the relative party.


We've all had the opportunity to hear from both candidates on many different issues and how they plan to make everything better for our government and for our nation. We all have seen the ridiculous amount of money spent on negative campaigning against one another. What we've yet to see is how tomorrows vote will actually save us from ourselves as a country.


Some of our BIGGER ISSUES

RIGHT TO LIFE/ABORTION (Don't be caught in that position!!)

HOMELESS AMERICANS (we have a better effort finding pets a new home)

ECONOMY (smiling because gas is under 3.
00, REALLY?)

WARTIME (who are we really fighting?)

EDUCATION (Lack of)

HEALTHCARE (47 million w/o health insurance)

DEFICIT (Our liabilities shouldn't be left for our children)

TAXES (600 Dollars is considered a tax break?WHAT?)

Although the President is a huge part of which direction our country's political views follow.......WE as a nation have the responsibility to speak up and continue to VOICE our opinions well after the BALLOTS have been counted.....No matter who we decide to elect as President should not change our drive to make this country a better place to be............

BE WISE AND BE HUMBLE......Put your trust in God and all things will have a much happier ending!!!!

Rony Delgarde

Is the U.S. economy in ship shape?

Yesterday, the market capitalization of Chinese state-owned oil company, PetroChina, hit $1 trillion eclipsing U.S. based rival Exxon as the world's most valuable company. Last night, at a lecture in Manhattan, I heard George Soros predict (yet again) that the unraveling of the U.S. economy had finally begun. Last week, a London-based financial newsletter called the United States "the next Argentina"suggesting that the U.S. economy's destiny was to echo the fate of Argentina a formerly prosperous nation that descended into poverty and economic chaos. It seems that anytime financial markets have a bad week or two, the global financial press readily hitches itself to the doomsday bandwagon by cheerfully predicting the demise of the U.S. economy. At times like this, it's worth reminding ourselves that we've been here before. In the 1970s, Americans grew up with two myths. First, that the Soviet Union would dominate the U.S. militarily; second, that the Japanese would dominate the U.S. economically. With the Soviet Union erased from the map, and the Japanese stock market below levels it traded at 17 years ago, both fears seem almost quaint. Yet today, the conventional wisdom that Brazil, Russia, India, and China the BRIC countries are set to dominate the United States is just as prevalent.

The U.S. Economic Gap: Sate by State vs The World Economy
In the midst of a housing collapse and credit crunch, the impending doom of the U.S. economy is taken as gospel. But look behind the headlines, and the numbers tell a different story. The U.S. economy grew by 3.9% in the credit turmoil-ridden third quarter following a 3.1% jump in the second quarter. That means that the United States added the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia to its economy just since the beginning of April. And the fact that the World Economic Forum ranked the U.S. economy the most competitive economy in the world last week got little press. And even when it did, the #1 ranking of the United States was explained away as a statistical mirage.
This is not to say that the U.S. economy is in ship shape. But with all of the talk about China and India dominating our economic futures, it's worth reminding ourselves where these new economic challengers stand in comparison to the United States today. Despite the high economic growth rates of developing nations, the United States is by far the world's wealthiest nation as measured by GDP the broadest measure of economic wealth. And the rest of the world isn't even close. This year, U.S. GDP is projected to be $13.22 trillion. That means that the U.S. economy is as large as the next four largest economies in the world Japan, Germany, China, and the United Kingdom combined.
Standing alone as a country, California would be the eighth largest economy in the world and approximately the size of France. Texas' economy is half the size of California's and its GSP compares to that of Canada. Florida's GSP is approximately the size of Asian tiger South Korea. Illinois' economy is approximately the size of Mexico. Ohio's economy is roughly the size of Australia's. Tennessee's GSP is the size of Saudi Arabia; Nevada, the size of Ireland; Alabama's economy is the size of Iran. Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the United States, is approximately the size of Pakistan's economy. And what about the United States' nearest rivals? Germany and China #3 and #4 on the list of the world's largest economies are smaller than the economies of Texas and California combined. India's $800 billion economy is on par with Florida. Brazil is comparable to New York. Russia's economy is about the size of New Jersey (or Texas).
The first criticism is that the US economy is based on nominal GDP how much wealth is generated in dollar terms and not how many goods and services those dollars buy. Economists sometimes use "purchasing power parity" (PPP) when comparing the size of global economies. Because prices for goods tend to be lower in developing countries, this measure makes poorer countries appear wealthier than they really are. But in taking a birds-eye view of wealth generation in the global economy, that approach makes little sense. Think of PPP as similar to a "cost of living adjustment" on a country level. Within the United States, $50,000 in Georgia buys you a lot more than it does in Manhattan. But as a measure of wealth in absolute terms, having $50,000 in your bank account is the same no matter where you live in Georgia or Calcutta (Kolkata).
Second, the US economy gap does not adjust for population. California and Texas have a combined population of 60 million, while China's population is 1.3 billion. This has huge implications. Let's say China does become the largest economy in the world in 20 years time. Yet, because of its large population, even if it continues growing at its current pace (a huge assumption), by 2050 it will only be as wealthy as former Communist Hungary is in 2008.

The U.S. Economic Gap: The Past and the Future
In 1790, the United States was a new, tiny nation of 4 million, about the size of Ireland today. Europe's population was 180 million, while India's was 190 million and China's was 320 million. Only seven cities had a population of 5,000 or more; just 12 had a population above 2,500. The United States had an agricultural economy with practically no factories. By 1885, the United States was #1 in the world in manufacturing. It produced almost 30% of the world's manufactured goods to outpace both the British Empire and the spanking new Germany. Into the 21st century, the cutting edge of global industries whether Silicon Valley, Hollywood, or Wall Street are still products of the U.S economic experiment. Underestimating the U.S. economy has become the new global financial sport. Yet the Japanese economy has not matched U.S. growth rates for at least the last decade. Europe celebrates triumphantly when its growth rate hits 2.5%. And for all the press they generate, China and India rank 34th and 48th, respectively in the World Economic Forum's global competitiveness index. As a young man, the world has been counting out the United States as far as I can remember. The U.S. economic gap provides a vivid reminder of just where the U.S. stands.

Thank you for reading my blog.

Rony DelGarde

The United States Economic versus the World

Productivity growth is not the same as GDP growth. Have you read that the European and American treasury officials have been telling the Chinese they need to raise interest rates? It's because they're keeping the currency artificially low--the Chinese economy is booming, which means their currency should be rapidly accelerating. But it isn't, because the Chinese central bank is keeping interest rates artificially low. That will lead, sooner rather than later, to skyrocketing inflation, and the boom will end. So why should the Americans and Euros give a damn? Because of all their capital investments in China, which will collapse in value, and because of the destabilization in the world economy as China would then attempt to export their inflation through higher finished goods prices.

Relative economic growth is what matters. And the US is gaining again, which is why the dollar is strengthening. The ECB is looking to raise rates, which is the opposite of what they need, and will result in a collapse of economic growth in Germany and France, which are the only EU countries that really matter anymore.No, long term every account will be in balance. When America runs a trade deficit, it's because more foreigners are investing in the United States than we do abroad. That means that America has to spend the excess capital on foreign goods and services. The trade account has been in deficit since 1980 in every quarter except for one, therefore the capital account has been in surplus in every quarter, except for the same one exception.

The only concern vis a vis the deficits are, what is the money being spent on? If it's for discretionary spending, then that is problem, like putting your grocery bill and vacations on credit cards you only make the minimum payment on. But what if the spending is on legitimate, long-term assets? Like bridges and highways and colleges and airports and dams and aircraft carriers?--then it's fine. You want to match long-term assets to long-term debts, and that's why the credit markets exist in the first place. The US government has at least $12 trillion in long-term assets, against only $9 trillion in debt. The spending still drives me crazy, but were the US government a household, it would have the highest credit score in the world.

Rony Delgarde